DANYLIW RESEARCH SEMINAR ON CONTEMPORARY UKRAINE

Denying Nuclear Coercion:
Defiance and the Failure of Russian Nuclear Signaling

This paper argues that Ukraine’s defiance has denied the coercive leverage Russia sought to gain from nuclear threats since 2022. The Kremlin’s posturing aims to generate fear, undermine societal cohesion, and erode the target population’s will to resist. The effectiveness of coercive nuclear signals depends on the public accepting them as genuine and pressuring their government to comply. When a signal fails to alter the target’s behavior, it exposes the bluff, raising the political cost of repeating the threat and narrowing future options.

Khrystyna Holynska is a Wilson Center Research Fellow and a policy researcher at RAND.

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