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Stephan de Spiegeleire

THE HAGUE CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES (NETHERLANDS)

Stephan De Spiegeleire is the principal scientist at the Hague ​ Centre for Strategic Studies. Stephan worked as a defense and security analyst at the RAND Corporation for nearly 10 years, interrupted by 3-year stints at SWP and the WEU’s Institute for Security Studies. Since 2004, he works in research institutes in The Netherlands (TNO/HCSS).

Khrystyna Holynska

KYIV SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS (UKRAINE)

Khrystyna Holynska has a PhD in political science, teaching political science and public administration in top Ukrainian universities. She is the founder and head (2014-2018) of the women’s NGO “Women Democratic Alliance” (Ukraine). Holynska is the expert for the reforms monitoring project iMoRe of VoxUkraine. Since 2017, Holynska has also been a strategic Analyst at HCSS.

PRESENTATIONS

Abstract

The RuBase Project:

A New Tool to Study Russia’s Coercion towards  Ukraine

STEPHAN DE SPIEGELEIRE and KHRYSTYNA HOLYNSKA

Ukraine has been the central target - and real-life ‘laboratory’ - of Russian multi-domain coercion since at least 2014. Five years onward the debate on these rich dynamics remains much heavier on pathos, politics and perception, than on dispassionate, rigorous and evidence-based policy analysis. This paper rectifies this unfortunate imbalance by carefully dissecting and mapping what is known about the main elements in Russia’s multi-domain coercive efforts: (1) the key entities (people, organizations, groups, companies, etc.) through which Russian coercive efforts are actuated; (2) the main (verbal and factual) coercive events; (3) the functional and spatial (national and regional) domains in which they take place, (4) the coercive modalities applied, (5) the targets of these coercive efforts, (6) their achieved effects and (7) the relationships between all of these various elements. To achieve this, this paper leverages data-sets and -tools from the ongoing ‘RuBase’ project - a large-scale 2-year research project conducted by the ​The Hague ​Centre for Strategic Studies (NL) and Georgia Institute of Technology (US) and funded by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.